South African fixed carrier Telkom announced in a preliminary statement that it expected EBITDA losses at its Nigerian unit, Multi-Links, to be higher than during last fiscal year (ending March 2009). The Company has announced impairments of ZAR 2.1bn (US$260m) on Multi-Links goodwill, and a full impairment of the unit’s net asset value. Last fiscal year, Multi-Links recorded losses of around $185m, off of a negative EBITDA of around $25m. This is clearly of utmost concern.

Telkom has now written off Multi-Links’s entire net asset value, a move that will raise further questions about its presence in Nigeria. We continue to believe that the company has some good assets in that market (though perhaps not that good since their assessed net value is now zero), notably in the wholesale and corporate segments. But competition in Nigeria has been tough. In the carrier’s carrier segment, Multi-Links has to contend with MTN Nigeria and a variety of other rivals, with competition putting downward pressure on bandwidth prices and Multi-Links still lacking nation-wide scale.

The consumer side has arguably been the biggest problem, as CDMA operators engaged in destructive price wars to win customers. Investors will be watching intently to hear which steps Telkom is looking to take in Nigeria, a Jekyll and Hyde market that has as much the capacity to pull up earnings as it does to destroy them. Without adequate strategy, Nigeria will be a money pit, one for which there are no easy solutions. One strategic option may be to get out of the consumer business altogether (or combine it with that of another CDMA player) and bulk up the carrier’s carrier side, or alternatively become more disciplined with subsidies, even at the cost of losing subscriber share.