MTN’s Results: Resilient, with Some Signs of Deceleration
On March 11, MTN reported its results for the year ended on the December 31, 2009. With group revenues up by 9.2%, organic customer growth at 28% and group EBITDA margin above the 40% landmark, MTN shows notable resiliency in the face of a global economic slowdown and an operating environment that has become much tougher.
- Revenues: MTN’s revenue growth has decelerated markedly; for the first time, group revenue growth has slipped into single digits. African revenue rose 6% only to about $13.5bn (vs. 20% in South East Africa and 55% in West Africa in 2008). This evolution owes as much to a tougher competitive environment, lower ARPUs and slower growth in volumes as it does to the negative impact of foreign exchange depreciation across African markets. At constant FX, revenue growth was a solid 20%.
- EBITDA: The EBITDA picture is also challenging. Group EBITDA rose by 7% only, a sharp decline from the average of 27% experienced over the three years to 2008. EBITDA margin dropped three percentage points to 41%, with most markets feeling the pressure. The operations in WECA (West, East and Central Africa) and Nigeria showed EBITDA growth in line with group figures at around 7-8% while SEA (South and East Africa) were hurt by bad results in South Africa. The mother operation witnessed a -2% decrease in EBITDA as a result of regulatory pressures and an EBITDA margin down by 4%.The foreign exchange impact was notable here as well, with EBITDA growing at close to 20% prior to the exchange effect.
- Data & CapEx: Data revenues in South Africa are in strong progression representing 14% of revenue at YE2009; a year on year growth of 22% vs. 11% in 2008. Most importantly non-messaging data is in strong progression representing 55% of total data revenues at YE2009 against 50% a year earlier. The evolution to data is ongoing at group level. In Nigeria the operator reported 78k active mobile internet users via data modems. MTN now operates WiMAX networks in 7 African markets and is rolling out 3G across operations. Also notable is the fact that MTN’s 2009 CapEx actually rose, in a year when many operators cut CapEx in the face of the global credit crunch. CapEx level reached 28% of revenues, up 31% from 2007 levels (21% to revenues). These efforts reflect MTN’s investment efforts in terms of 3G roll out as well as network expansion to Greenfield areas.